1-Deception and Estimation: How we fool ourselves next clip

Keywords: Deception Estimation

Recording date 2016-05-17

Lecturer

Linda Rising

Via

Free

Language

English

Faculty

Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg

Producer

MultiMediaZentrum

Cognitive scientists tell us that we are hardwired for deceptionoverly optimistic about outcomes. In fact, we surely wouldnt have survived without this trait. With this built-in bias as a starting point, its no wonder that software managers and teams almost always develop poor estimates. But that doesnt mean all is lost. We must simply accept that our estimates are optimistic guesses and continually re-evaluate as we go. Linda Rising has been part of many development projects where sincere, honest people wanted to make the best estimates possible and used scientific approaches to make it happenand all for naught. In many projects, because re-estimation was regarded as an admission of failure, the team spent too much time and endless meetings trying to get it right. Offering examples from ordinary lifeespecially from the way people eat and drinkLinda demonstrates how hard it is for us to see our poor estimating skills and offers practical advice on living and working with the self-deception that is hardwired in all of us.

Up next

Schloss1
Prof. Dr. Minghui Zhou
2016-10-04
Free

More clips in this category ' Computer Science'

2018-04-13
Free
public  
2019-05-13
Passwort
protected  
2019-04-02
Free
public  
2013-07-03
Studon
protected